Round of 16 Part 1 - Happy Valentine's Day

On this Valentine’s board, many East-West pairs reached a reasonable 6♥ contract. Practically speaking, it was a promising spot as long as both AJ of hearts weren’t offside. However, with most tables leading a club, this hope quickly vanished, as South was able to get in with the ♥A and give their partner a club ruff, immediately costing East-West a crucial trick.

Even after the club ruff, declarer still has to decide whether to drop the ♥J or finesse North’s hand for Jxxx. The heart suit is effectively 1‑1 after the club ruff, so the finesse can go either way. Most pairs didn’t handle this play correctly, finishing with only 10 tricks. In fact, there was one pair who played in 5♥, took the finesse after the club ruff, and ultimately went down in game rather than slam, proving how this promising slam ultimately ended in heartbreak and disappointment. 

One thing worth noting is that 6NT and 6♦ are both theoretically cold contracts, since East-West doesn’t have to lose a tempo in the trump suit to clear trumps. However, declarer would need to take an anti-percentage play by correctly dropping the HJ to make either slam.

Oddly, the greatest margin of swing on this board was just 3 IMPs, caused by undertricks in 6♥. Across all eight matches, the average swing was only 1.25 IMPs, illustrating that despite the drama at the table, most decisions were fairly uniform across the field. Interestingly, only two tables stopped in the “safe” 4♥, and both occurred in the same match, where only overtrick IMPs were generated.